Feedback Effects Analysis of Traffic Information Based on Bayesian Theory
نویسنده
چکیده
The feedback effects of ATIS information for helping travelers choose optimal routes are researched. We build a dynamic route choice model for ATIS; analyze the adjustment and renewal process of travel route decision based on Bayesian method and logit choice model. Furthermore, through comparing whether can obtain ATIS information for users, the route choice rules are designed and practical simulation are carried out. Then an evolution algorithm is provided and the link flows and path flows on this network are simulated to analyze the process of user equilibrium when the parameters of the network are changed. The results show that the feedback effects of ATIS are significant when extreme accidents happen in the network. Comparing with no ATIS information, path flows can achieve stability in a shorter time period by combining the individual past experience and practical traffic status. Keywords—ATIS, Bayesian theory, optimal path, route choosing behaviour, user equilibrium
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تاریخ انتشار 2015